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1998 Senate · MO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 54%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.77% · Republican 52.68%

R+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 54 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.771 − 52.676 = -8.905
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-8.905) = -4.095
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.095| = 4.095

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63760, race ID 1735 (538 database).