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1998 Senate · NC

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.01%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.151 − 47.012 = 4.139
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (4.139) = -2.140
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.140| = 2.140

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63762, race ID 1739 (538 database).