Skip to content

2003 Governor · CA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2003-09-29 (8 days before the election) · 294 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 45%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.47% · Republican 48.58%

R+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 45 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.473 − 48.583 = -17.110
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-17.110) = 0.110
  4. Absolute miss = |0.110| = 0.110

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63766, race ID 1380 (538 database).