2000 Senate · VA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 47%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.68% · Republican 52.26%
R+4.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 47.680 − 52.255 = -4.575
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-4.575) = 1.575
- Absolute miss = |1.575| = 1.575
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6377, race ID 1712 (538 database).