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2003 Governor · KY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2003-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 755 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.96% · Republican 55.04%

R+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.964 − 55.036 = -10.072
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-10.072) = 9.072
  4. Absolute miss = |9.072| = 9.072

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63772, race ID 1376 (538 database).