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2003 Governor · KY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2003-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 755 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.96% · Republican 55.04%

R+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.964 − 55.036 = -10.072
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-10.072) = 3.072
  4. Absolute miss = |3.072| = 3.072

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63773, race ID 1376 (538 database).