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2002 House · KY-4

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 43%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.11% · Republican 47.55%

D+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.111 − 47.545 = 3.566
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (3.566) = 7.433
  4. Absolute miss = |7.433| = 7.433

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63775, race ID 2885 (538 database).