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2005 Governor · NJ

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2005-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 798 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 44%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.47% · Republican 43.02%

D+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.472 − 43.023 = 10.449
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (10.449) = -4.448
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.448| = 4.448

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63780, race ID 1363 (538 database).