2007 Governor · KY
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2007-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 552 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 59% · Republican 39%
D+20.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.71% · Republican 41.29%
D+17.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 59 − 39 = 20.00
- Actual margin = 58.707 − 41.293 = 17.414
- Signed miss = 20.00 − (17.414) = 2.586
- Absolute miss = |2.586| = 2.586
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63784, race ID 1324 (538 database).