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2011 Governor · KY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2011-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 576 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 29%

D+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.72% · Republican 35.29%

D+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 29 = 25.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.722 − 35.292 = 20.430
  3. Signed miss = 25.00 − (20.430) = 4.570
  4. Absolute miss = |4.570| = 4.570

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63794, race ID 1271 (538 database).