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2004 Senate · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 573 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 59%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.49% · Republican 69.16%

R+41.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 59 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.487 − 69.163 = -41.676
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-41.676) = 8.676
  4. Absolute miss = |8.676| = 8.676

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63795, race ID 1628 (538 database).