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2013 Senate · NJ

Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling · fieldwork ended 2013-10-10 (6 days before the election) · 513 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 36%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.92% · Republican 44.02%

D+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 36 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.924 − 44.020 = 10.904
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (10.904) = 11.096
  4. Absolute miss = |11.096| = 11.096

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63803, race ID 1471 (538 database).