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2004 President · national

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2004-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 2,535 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.13% · Republican 50.57%

R+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.130 − 50.573 = -2.443
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-2.443) = 3.444
  4. Absolute miss = |3.444| = 3.444

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63810, race ID 39 (538 database).