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2008 President · PA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 602 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.7% · Republican 40%

D+13.7

The certified result

Democrat 54.49% · Republican 44.17%

D+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.7 − 40 = 13.70
  2. Actual margin = 54.486 − 44.167 = 10.319
  3. Signed miss = 13.70 − (10.319) = 3.382
  4. Absolute miss = |3.382| = 3.382

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63814, race ID 742 (538 database).