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2013 Senate · MA

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2013-06-17 (8 days before the election) · 312 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 36%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.80% · Republican 44.60%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 36 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.800 − 44.601 = 10.199
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (10.199) = 9.801
  4. Absolute miss = |9.801| = 9.801

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63816, race ID 1472 (538 database).