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2008 President · OH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 605 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.2% · Republican 43.9%

D+6.3

The certified result

Democrat 51.50% · Republican 46.91%

D+4.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.2 − 43.9 = 6.30
  2. Actual margin = 51.504 − 46.911 = 4.593
  3. Signed miss = 6.30 − (4.593) = 1.706
  4. Absolute miss = |1.706| = 1.706

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63822, race ID 739 (538 database).