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2008 President · VA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 604 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.7% · Republican 44.6%

D+6.1

The certified result

Democrat 52.63% · Republican 46.33%

D+6.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.7 − 44.6 = 6.10
  2. Actual margin = 52.629 − 46.331 = 6.298
  3. Signed miss = 6.10 − (6.298) = -0.199
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.199| = 0.199

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63823, race ID 749 (538 database).