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2008 President · MO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 602 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.4% · Republican 45.7%

D+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 49.29% · Republican 49.43%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.4 − 45.7 = 1.70
  2. Actual margin = 49.293 − 49.426 = -0.133
  3. Signed miss = 1.70 − (-0.133) = 1.833
  4. Absolute miss = |1.833| = 1.833

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63825, race ID 728 (538 database).