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2004 House · PA-17

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 320 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 36%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.09% · Republican 38.93%

D+20.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 36 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.089 − 38.930 = 20.159
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (20.159) = -8.159
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.159| = 8.159

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63827, race ID 3501 (538 database).