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2008 President · NC

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.7% · Republican 49.3%

R+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.70% · Republican 49.38%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.7 − 49.3 = -1.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.704 − 49.376 = 0.328
  3. Signed miss = -1.60 − (0.328) = -1.929
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.929| = 1.929

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63828, race ID 731 (538 database).