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2004 President · AR

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 632 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.9% · Republican 50.1%

R+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 44.55% · Republican 54.31%

R+9.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.9 − 50.1 = -3.20
  2. Actual margin = 44.548 − 54.306 = -9.758
  3. Signed miss = -3.20 − (-9.758) = 6.558
  4. Absolute miss = |6.558| = 6.558

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63835, race ID 757 (538 database).