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2004 President · MN

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 784 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54.2% · Republican 43.1%

D+11.1

The certified result

Democrat 51.09% · Republican 47.61%

D+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.2 − 43.1 = 11.10
  2. Actual margin = 51.090 − 47.614 = 3.476
  3. Signed miss = 11.10 − (3.476) = 7.624
  4. Absolute miss = |7.624| = 7.624

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63844, race ID 778 (538 database).