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2004 President · OR

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 1,125 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.9% · Republican 43.8%

D+10.1

The certified result

Democrat 51.35% · Republican 47.19%

D+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.9 − 43.8 = 10.10
  2. Actual margin = 51.349 − 47.193 = 4.156
  3. Signed miss = 10.10 − (4.156) = 5.944
  4. Absolute miss = |5.944| = 5.944

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63859, race ID 792 (538 database).