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2004 President · TN

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 992 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.8% · Republican 50.3%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 42.52% · Republican 56.80%

R+14.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.8 − 50.3 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 42.525 − 56.799 = -14.274
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (-14.274) = 11.774
  4. Absolute miss = |11.774| = 11.774

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63862, race ID 797 (538 database).