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2004 President · TN

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 1,210 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.1% · Republican 50.4%

R+3.3

The certified result

Democrat 42.52% · Republican 56.80%

R+14.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.1 − 50.4 = -3.30
  2. Actual margin = 42.525 − 56.799 = -14.274
  3. Signed miss = -3.30 − (-14.274) = 10.974
  4. Absolute miss = |10.974| = 10.974

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63863, race ID 797 (538 database).