Skip to content

2004 President · WA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 1,440 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54.3% · Republican 43.9%

D+10.4

The certified result

Democrat 52.82% · Republican 45.64%

D+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.3 − 43.9 = 10.40
  2. Actual margin = 52.821 − 45.640 = 7.181
  3. Signed miss = 10.40 − (7.181) = 3.219
  4. Absolute miss = |3.219| = 3.219

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63865, race ID 802 (538 database).