Skip to content

2004 President · WA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 1,832 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54.6% · Republican 43.4%

D+11.2

The certified result

Democrat 52.82% · Republican 45.64%

D+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.6 − 43.4 = 11.20
  2. Actual margin = 52.821 − 45.640 = 7.181
  3. Signed miss = 11.20 − (7.181) = 4.019
  4. Absolute miss = |4.019| = 4.019

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63866, race ID 802 (538 database).