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2004 President · WI

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 883 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.3% · Republican 47.5%

D+3.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.70% · Republican 49.32%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.3 − 47.5 = 3.80
  2. Actual margin = 49.700 − 49.320 = 0.380
  3. Signed miss = 3.80 − (0.380) = 3.420
  4. Absolute miss = |3.420| = 3.420

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63867, race ID 803 (538 database).