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2004 President · WV

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.8% · Republican 48.6%

R+2.8

The certified result

Democrat 43.20% · Republican 56.06%

R+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.8 − 48.6 = -2.80
  2. Actual margin = 43.200 − 56.064 = -12.864
  3. Signed miss = -2.80 − (-12.864) = 10.064
  4. Absolute miss = |10.064| = 10.064

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63868, race ID 804 (538 database).