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2000 Governor · MT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 628 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.08% · Republican 50.98%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.083 − 50.985 = -3.902
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-3.902) = 5.902
  4. Absolute miss = |5.902| = 5.902

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6387, race ID 1422 (538 database).