2000 Senate · MT
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 628 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 45%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.24% · Republican 50.55%
R+3.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 47.237 − 50.554 = -3.317
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.317) = 2.317
- Absolute miss = |2.317| = 2.317
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6387, race ID 1698 (538 database).