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2000 President · MT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 628 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 49%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.37% · Republican 58.44%

R+25.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 49 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.365 − 58.439 = -25.074
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-25.074) = 13.074
  4. Absolute miss = |13.074| = 13.074

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6387, race ID 832 (538 database).