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2008 President · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 46.2%

D+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 51.03% · Republican 48.22%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 46.2 = 1.30
  2. Actual margin = 51.033 − 48.215 = 2.818
  3. Signed miss = 1.30 − (2.818) = -1.518
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.518| = 1.518

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63873, race ID 713 (538 database).