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2010 Governor · CA

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 53.77% · Republican 40.88%

D+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.770 − 40.885 = 12.885
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (12.885) = -12.885
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.885| = 12.885

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63881, race ID 1278 (538 database).