2013 Governor · VA
ABC News/The Washington Post · fieldwork ended 2013-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 762 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 39%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.74% · Republican 45.22%
D+2.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 39 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 47.736 − 45.217 = 2.519
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (2.519) = 9.482
- Absolute miss = |9.482| = 9.482
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63908, race ID 1257 (538 database).