2009 Governor · VA
ABC News/The Washington Post · fieldwork ended 2009-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 1,206 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 55%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.26% · Republican 58.62%
R+17.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 55 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 41.255 − 58.619 = -17.364
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-17.364) = 6.364
- Absolute miss = |6.364| = 6.364
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63911, race ID 1312 (538 database).