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2010 Governor · TX

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 1,510 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35.5% · Republican 49.8%

R+14.3

The certified result

Democrat 42.30% · Republican 54.97%

R+12.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35.5 − 49.8 = -14.30
  2. Actual margin = 42.298 − 54.971 = -12.673
  3. Signed miss = -14.30 − (-12.673) = -1.627
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.627| = 1.627

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63917, race ID 1306 (538 database).