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2010 House · TX-23

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 2,215 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 43%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.44% · Republican 49.40%

R+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 43 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.444 − 49.397 = -4.953
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-4.953) = -6.047
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.047| = 6.047

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63917, race ID 4850 (538 database).