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2010 House · TX-27

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 1,122 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 45%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.10% · Republican 47.85%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 45 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.103 − 47.851 = -0.748
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-0.748) = -9.252
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.252| = 9.252

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63917, race ID 4854 (538 database).