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2013 Governor · VA

Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership · fieldwork ended 2013-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 1,038 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 38%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.74% · Republican 45.22%

D+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 38 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.736 − 45.217 = 2.519
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.519) = 4.482
  4. Absolute miss = |4.482| = 4.482

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63918, race ID 1257 (538 database).