2003 Governor · CA
Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2003-10-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 29% · Republican 37%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.47% · Republican 48.58%
R+17.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 29 − 37 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 31.473 − 48.583 = -17.110
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-17.110) = 9.110
- Absolute miss = |9.110| = 9.110
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63924, race ID 1380 (538 database).