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2005 Governor · NJ

Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2005-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 410 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 39%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.47% · Republican 43.02%

D+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 39 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.472 − 43.023 = 10.449
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (10.449) = -2.448
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.448| = 2.448

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63927, race ID 1363 (538 database).