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2013 Governor · NJ

Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2013-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 570 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 59%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.19% · Republican 60.30%

R+22.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 59 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.191 − 60.302 = -22.111
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-22.111) = 3.111
  4. Absolute miss = |3.111| = 3.111

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63930, race ID 1256 (538 database).