2005 Governor · NJ
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2005-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 394 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 44%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.47% · Republican 43.02%
D+10.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 53.472 − 43.023 = 10.449
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (10.449) = -5.448
- Absolute miss = |-5.448| = 5.448
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63942, race ID 1363 (538 database).