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2010 Governor · CA

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 900 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 43%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.77% · Republican 40.88%

D+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 43 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.770 − 40.885 = 12.885
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (12.885) = -9.885
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.885| = 9.885

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63952, race ID 1278 (538 database).