Skip to content

2013 Governor · NJ

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2013-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 1,436 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 57%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.19% · Republican 60.30%

R+22.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 57 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.191 − 60.302 = -22.111
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-22.111) = 2.111
  4. Absolute miss = |2.111| = 2.111

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63954, race ID 1256 (538 database).