2009 Governor · VA
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2009-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 1,457 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 56%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.26% · Republican 58.62%
R+17.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 56 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 41.255 − 58.619 = -17.364
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-17.364) = 3.364
- Absolute miss = |3.364| = 3.364
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63960, race ID 1312 (538 database).