2005 Governor · VA
Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2005-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 407 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 36%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.72% · Republican 45.99%
D+5.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 36 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 51.717 − 45.989 = 5.728
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (5.728) = 2.273
- Absolute miss = |2.273| = 2.273
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63977, race ID 1364 (538 database).