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2013 Governor · NJ

Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling · fieldwork ended 2013-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 535 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 66%

R+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.19% · Republican 60.30%

R+22.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 66 = -36.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.191 − 60.302 = -22.111
  3. Signed miss = -36.00 − (-22.111) = -13.889
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.889| = 13.889

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63980, race ID 1256 (538 database).