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2001 Governor · NJ

Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling · fieldwork ended 2001-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 745 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 36%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.43% · Republican 41.67%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 36 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.433 − 41.675 = 14.758
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (14.758) = 2.242
  4. Absolute miss = |2.242| = 2.242

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63981, race ID 1417 (538 database).